A Historic Tie, One House Flipped and Several Supermajorities: Election Results in the Midwest

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*Note: This Blog was published on November 13, 2024 and relies on unofficial election results. Official certification of state election results will take several weeks. MEEA will update this blog if there are any significant changes as results are certified.

Federal

Republicans are returning to power in the White House and in the Senate. While several races in the House of Representatives are still not final, Republicans are leading the race to control the House as well. Based on candidate rhetoric throughout the campaigns, we can expect to see cuts to funding for climate measures, perhaps including those outlined in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Both House Speaker Mike Johnson and President-Elect Donald Trump have expressed a desire to rescind the IRA’s tax credits for customers to purchase electric vehicles as well as incentives for states to build electric vehicle charging infrastructure. Energy efficiency programs like the climate pollution reduction grants or the home energy rebates are likely also vulnerable to cuts in funding. MEEA’s Policy Team will be closely tracking developments at the federal level that could impact energy efficiency programs.

Midwest Governors

Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota held gubernatorial elections and all three have new governors. Indiana elected Republican Mike Braun, who previously served the state in the U.S. Senate. Outgoing Governor Eric Holcomb, also a Republican, was term limited. In Missouri, outgoing Governor Mike Parson was also term limited, and Missouri’s new governor will be current Lieutenant Governor, Republican Mike Kehoe. In North Dakota, Republican Governor Doug Burgum did not seek a third term, and voters elected a new Republican governor, U.S. House Representative Kelly Armstrong.  

South Dakota may also get a new governor in the near future as it appears President-Elect Donald Trump has selected Governor Kristi Noem as his Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security.  

Midwest State Legislatures

Most Midwestern states, save for Michigan and Minnesota, held state senate elections this November. All states in MEEA’s service territory, except for Nebraska, which is a unicameral state, held state house elections. Some of the notable elections in our region include:

Michigan

In Michigan, Republicans flipped the state House, ending two years of a Democratic trifecta. Republicans are projected to win 58 of 110 seats in the House with several results still unofficial. Democrats remain in control of the Senate and Governor’s office. The state’s previous democratic trifecta was its first in 40 years. Legislators elevated climate policy in these two years, passing a suite of energy bills in fall 2023. This change in partisan control will likely shrink the Democrats’ climate agenda moving forward.

Minnesota

Control of Minnesota’s State House is uncertain as the initial results have the parties split evenly with 67 seats each. There are at least two races, however, with margins likely to be close enough for a recount if the losing candidate requests one once results are certified on November 21.  

Minnesota did not hold general elections for the state Senate this year, but there was a special election for a vacant seat won by the Democratic candidate, meaning the Democrats maintain a narrow one seat Senate majority, 34 to 33.  

Like Michigan, Minnesota lawmakers passed meaningful climate legislation last session, enacting a carbon-free standard. The state’s Energy Conservation and Optimization Act of 2021 did pass with bipartisan support, so it’s possible that the chambers can come to bipartisan agreement on energy legislation going forward, though it will likely be more difficult.

Ohio

Republicans will maintain control of both the House and Senate in Ohio. Democrats, however, did manage to flip two House seats ending the Republican two-thirds supermajority. With 65 House seats out of 99, the Republicans still have the necessary 59 seats needed to override a governor’s veto, but they lose some privileges that come with a 66-seat supermajority. Democrats also flipped two Senate seats, but Republicans maintain a supermajority of 24 out of 33 seats.  

We are still watching HB79, a bill that would restore energy efficiency in the state. It is unclear if the bill will pass, but it will likely be on the agenda in the November lame duck session.  

Wisconsin

In its first election with newly drawn state legislative maps, Wisconsin Republicans maintained control of the state Assembly, albeit with a smaller majority than last time around. The Wisconsin Supreme Court struck down the previous Republican drawn maps as unconstitutional last year and ordered lawmakers to draw new ones. With new, less gerrymandered maps, the unofficial results show Democrats decreased the Republican majority in the State Assembly from 64-35 to 52-44 and from 22-10 to 18-15 in the Senate.    

Energy and environmental legislation has not gotten much traction in the last few legislative sessions. It is possible that these issues receive more attention given the changes in partisanship in the two legislative chambers.

Maintaining (Super)Majorities

Illinois Democrats maintain their supermajority in the state House and their majority in the state Senate. Meanwhile, Republicans have maintained supermajorities in both the state House and Senate in Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, North Dakota and South Dakota. In Iowa, if the unofficial results hold, Republicans will have 67 out of 100 House seats, the largest majority in the Iowa State House since the number of representatives was set at 100 in 1970.  

In Nebraska’s unicameral legislature, Republicans appear to be holding onto their supermajority, however, three races remain too close to call at the time of writing.  

Midwest Elected Public Utility Commissioners  

Three Midwestern states have elected public utility commissions: Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota. In Nebraska, two of the five commissioners on Nebraska’s Public Service Commission (PSC) were up for election. Both Republican incumbents, Dan Watermeier and Tim Schram, won re-election. Republicans hold all five seats on the Nebraska PSC.

In North Dakota, the Republican Chairman of the Public Service Commission, Randy Christman, was re-elected for another term. Current Commissioner Julie Fedorchak, also a Republican, won the U.S. House seat vacated by Governor-Elect Kelly Armstrong, meaning Armstrong will get to appoint a new Commissioner to fill this vacancy. The third Commissioner on the North Dakota PSC, Commissioner Sheri Haugen-Hoffart, is not up for re-election until 2026. Republicans hold all three seats on the North Dakota PSC.  

In South Dakota, one of the three seats on the Public Utilities Commission (PUC) was up for election. Incumbent Republican Kristie Fiegen was re-elected Commissioner. Republicans hold all three seats on the South Dakota PUC.

We don’t anticipate energy efficiency will be prioritized any more or less than previously in either of the Dakotas and Nebraska, as the commission makeup in all three states remains the same.

Conclusion

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Apart from the Michigan House and the historic tie in the Minnesota House, no other chambers flipped in the Midwest. Republicans maintain control of the majority of state legislatures throughout the Midwest, with Democrats retaining full control of both chambers only in Illinois with Minnesota results still pending.  

MEEA's policy team will continue to monitor election results, as several races are still not called or will go to recounts. MEEA will work to educate these new lawmakers on the economic and environmental benefits of energy efficiency. 

If you have any questions on the region’s elections or their implications, please reach out to Policy Manager, Kit White, or Policy Director, Maddie Wazowicz.  Members can also subscribe to MEEA’s Policy Insider to receive monthly state and federal policy updates.